Tropical Storm Lee Spaghetti Model Shows Path as Strength Gathers

The National Hurricane Center is actively tracking a tropical depression in the Atlantic that is expected to become a hurricane in the next few days.

On Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center in the Atlantic wrote on X (formerly Twitter), "Tropical Depression 13 forms in the Central Atlantic, forecast to become a powerful hurricane by the end of the week. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system at hurricanes.gov."

A public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center said, "Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system."

Matt Devitt, the chief meteorologist at WINK in Fort Myers, Florida, shared a post on X with a spaghetti model for Tropical Depression 13. He wrote, "Current model majority and highest probability is for the eventual Major Hurricane to curve north roughly 500 miles east of Florida. Still a tad too early to 100% guarantee, but the trend has been our friend with every update."

The news about Tropical Depression 13 comes shortly after Hurricane Idalia made landfall as a Category 3 storm in parts of Florida. The state experienced high wind speeds, heavy rainfall and storm surges, with severe and widespread property damage to homes and businesses.

In a post on X, the Atlantic National Hurricane Center shared a map of Tropical Depression 13 showing possible landfall in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic later this week.

"The depression is forecast to become a major hurricane by this weekend and could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that time," the Atlantic National Hurricane Center said in an update to X. "While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast."

Newsweek reached out to the hurricane center via email for further comment.

The National Weather Service defines a tropical depression as a "cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds (one-minute average) of 38 mph (33 knots) or less." A hurricane is defined as a "tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds of 74 mph or greater (64 knots or greater)."

On X, Zach Covey, a hurricane specialist with Spectrum News, shared a video forecast on X for Tropical Depression 13. "Why are we so confident in an initial forecast of steady intensification on #TD13? Because the environment it's in is just perfect," he wrote.

"Not only are dry air and shear not a problem, but this system is moving over some very warm and deep waters #Tropics," Covey added.

The National Hurricane Center said, "The environment around the depression appears to be conducive for strengthening. The only obvious hindering factor is light-to-moderate northeasterly [wind] shear, which should keep the intensification rate in check in the short term."

The hurricane center said that the "intensity forecast is extremely bullish for a first forecast, but remarkably lies below the intensity consensus. All indications are that the depression will become a strong hurricane by the end of the forecast period."

Uncommon Knowledge

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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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